The analysis of the contraction of credit demand i

  • Detail

The analysis of the contraction of credit demand in the second quarter said that the expectation of interest rate hike was weakened

the analysis of the contraction of credit demand in the second quarter said that the expectation of interest rate hike was weakened

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the credit demand was slightly changed, and the credit market in 2010 seemed destined to be unpredictable. Just as the market is still clamouring for the tight supply of credit funds in the first quarter, banks seem to have another undercurrent in the second quarter. It was once oversupplied by regulators in the first quarter

credit demand changes slightly

the credit market in 2010 seems destined to be unpredictable. Just as the market is still clamouring for the tight supply of credit funds in the first quarter, banks seem to have another undercurrent in the second quarter

the credit demand of a joint-stock bank, which was "cared for" by the regulators due to the excessive credit supply in the first quarter, suffered a dramatic "cold spot" in May

"our branch's loans increased negatively in May, including some growth in medium and long-term loans, but negative in short-term loans and bills." The above-mentioned person from a joint-stock bank branch told, and the person believed that the "negative growth" should not be limited to its branch

in April, the person once told this newspaper that due to the excessive credit supply in the first quarter, in order to control the pace of supply, the bank implemented a more stringent "ten day control", that is, the pace of credit supply was strictly controlled in a smaller time unit of "ten day"

before that, the market has been widely rumored that in order to balance the pace of credit supply, commercial banks are required to follow the quarterly delivery pace of "3322" throughout the year and "442" within the quarter. The bank, on the other hand, is more refined to implement tighter control with the "ten day rhythm" of "442"

after only more than a month, due to the demand is less than expected, the bank's extremely strict "ten day control industry has broad prospects for development" has been relaxed again. "Now the demand can be basically met, and the control is not as strict as before." The person said

there are not a few bankers who feel the same way. Another person from a branch of a state-owned bank told that although there was no obvious feeling that demand was shrinking, the control of credit lines in the bank in the second quarter was indeed less strict than that in the first quarter. Note financing, which was strictly controlled in the first quarter, was relaxed again in the second quarter

in February and March, he continued to track the credit supply of a local branch of the above-mentioned state-owned bank. At that time, the person said that the quota was very tight, and there was only a quota available in the first few days of the month, and due to the quota control, it was roughly estimated that more than 2 billion credit needs had not been met, let alone the demand for bill financing

"now, except for the small amount bills below 1million, basically the reported bill financing needs can be approved, and the recent bill financing interest rate has also decreased from 5.5% to a little more than 3% at present." The person was symmetrical in late May

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, who visited Shandong, Jiangxi and Henan in May, was also informed when communicating with local senior executives in charge of credit that the current credit demand is obviously not as strong as that in the first quarter

in fact, subtle changes in credit demand appeared as early as April. According to the statistics of the central bank, in April, the bill financing of financial institutions ended the nine consecutive months of decline since July last year, with an increase of 47billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, the bill financing of all financial institutions decreased by 624.7 billion yuan

The resurgence of bill financing is considered to be a reflection of the sluggish demand of the real economy. As Lian Ping said, if the real economy is booming, why should banks use limited resources to make bills

it can be said that many banks compete for indicators at the beginning of the month and the beginning of the quarter. In the second quarter, the situation of some banks reversed. In an interview with the media, a major banker said that the comprehensive utilization of bulk industrial solid waste in 2017 was expected to reach 1.4 billion tons at the end of May, and some banks had to reopen their bills

including the bill financing scale of 47billion yuan, the new RMB loans in April were 774billion yuan, while the latest data released by the central bank showed that the new RMB loans decreased by 134.6 billion yuan to 639.4 billion yuan in May compared with April, and the bill financing scale increased by 37.7 billion yuan in the same month, which is the second positive growth month since April

main reasons: demand is suppressed

the more strict control of local financing platform loans by regulators and the new deal of the real estate market are considered to be the main reasons for the contraction of credit demand of some banks

according to the above-mentioned joint-stock banks, one of the main reasons for the negative growth of the new RMB loans of the branch in May is that the loans of some local financing platforms are due. According to the new policy, some of them are uncertain whether they can be renewed, while others have been determined not to be renewed. At the same time, the proportion of follow-up capital needs of local financing platform projects under construction is not high, and the entry of new government financing platform projects is now strictly controlled

in the first quarter of this year, the bank's government financing platform accounted for 30% to 40% of new loans. Although the proportion has fallen sharply from 60% in the same period last year, it still accounts for almost half of the credit scale. Therefore, the strict restrictions on loans from local financing platforms have an immediate impact on it

according to the source, the branch plans to increase RMB loans by about 4billion this year, while the maturing government financing platform loans are expected to be 2billion, of which a certain amount of loans will not be renewed. Therefore, considering the need to fill the gap of maturing local financing platform loans, the actual new increment this year should be 4.5 billion-5 billion yuan

because government projects usually have a large amount of funds, which are in the hundreds of millions, the person said that if the due gap is made up with SME loans now, a lot of SME loan demand reserves are required, and these enterprises may not be able to use the funds immediately after the approval of the loan demand of physical enterprises, so it is difficult to fully fill the gap in a short period of time. At the same time, the real real real economy has not fully recovered, and external demand has not yet reached the peak in history. Enterprises cannot have too much incremental demand

Liu Yuhui, director of the economic evaluation center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also told that although enterprise orders have increased, due to the rise in raw material prices and labor costs, enterprise profits are very thin. Enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are not willing to expand production capacity. At the same time, affected by the European debt crisis, enterprises are also worried about the future payment ability of customers, which affects the capital demand of enterprises

however, the above-mentioned joint-stock bankers said that "negative growth" should only be a phased passive situation, and all banks will encounter similar problems

according to the CBRC, 40% of the new loans in the first quarter of this year still went to local financing platforms. An information provided by a provincial branch of a state-owned bank shows that nearly half of the bank's new loans in the first quarter were invested in related projects with government background

whether or not these projects should be classified as the current strictly controlled local financing platform project loans, but this proportion at least reflects the current bank's dependence on government background projects. Therefore, the situation of "negative growth" of new loans in May may may not be a case

the new deal in the property market is another important reason why some banks feel that credit demand is shrinking

on April 16, the new deal of the real estate market was issued, which made it clear that a more strict differentiated housing credit policy should be implemented. For families who purchase the first self owned house with a building area of more than 90 square meters, the proportion of the down payment of the loan shall not be less than 30%; For families who purchase a second house with a loan, the proportion of the down payment of the loan shall not be less than 50%, and the loan interest rate shall not be less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate; The proportion of down payment and the level of interest rate will be significantly increased for those who purchase third or more houses with loans

recently, the recognition of the second set of housing has also been clearly defined as "housing and loan recognition"

the introduction of a series of policies has a great impact on the demand for real estate and real estate loans

according to the report released by the China Index Research Institute a few days ago, the trading volume of commercial housing in major cities across the country fell across the board in May, with a total decline of about 44%. Among them, Suzhou fell the most, reaching 77.75%

affected by the regulation policies, the development enterprises generally lowered their land acquisition expectations, and the transaction of residential land across the country continued to be depressed in May. According to the report of the China Index Research Institute, 188 residential land transactions occurred in 70 key cities across the country in May, with a month on month decrease of 14% and a year-on-year decrease of 11%; The transacted land area was 13.47 million square meters, a decrease of 13% month on month and an increase of 11% year on year

the reduction of commercial residential transaction volume and residential land transaction is bound to affect personal housing mortgage loans and real estate development loans

according to the statistics of the central bank, in the first quarter of this year, the real estate RMB loans of major financial institutions, rural cooperative financial institutions and urban credit cooperatives increased by 845.7 billion yuan. Among them, real estate development loans increased by 320.7 billion yuan; Personal housing loans increased by 522.7 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, the total new RMB loans was 2.6 trillion, which shows that the proportion of new RMB loans in real estate alone is close to 33%

if local financing platforms accounted for 40% of the new loans in the first quarter, such as media reports, plus real estate loans, the two loans accounted for more than 70% of the new loans in the first quarter

therefore, it is not difficult to understand how profound the feeling will be when the spearhead is directed at local financing platforms and real estate, and the banks that rely heavily on these two for credit delivery targets

"once real estate is controlled, the capital demand of more than a dozen related industries will be affected." The above-mentioned joint-stock banks are also quite helpless about the current credit demand situation. Fortunately, the branch has not been involved in real estate loans in the past, but the person also said that the impact of the new deal on its personal housing mortgage loans is not small

a person from the Finance Department of another joint-stock bank also told this newspaper that the policy is so strict that no one dares to touch the high-voltage line, and the bank's personal housing mortgage loans have also been significantly reduced due to the new deal

according to the Research Report on the analysis of the scale and direction of loans affected by the new real estate deal released by CITIC Securities on May 4, if the new credit in the second quarter is 2.1 trillion, affected by the policy, the proportion of development loans and mortgage loans will be significantly reduced. The proportion of development loans is assumed to be 5%-12%, and the proportion of mortgage loans is 8%-15%. The increment of two loans in the second quarter will be reduced by 276.4 billion-570.4 billion yuan compared with the first quarter

uncertainties are increasing. The official PMI in May fell by 1.8 percentage points to 53.9%, and the HSBC PMI fell sharply by 2.5 percentage points to 52.7, which is the second consecutive month of slowdown. Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank (23.27, 0.07, 0.30%), wrote that this shows that the endogenous driving force of economic growth and private investment enthusiasm still need to be stimulated

Political Commissar Lu believed that the expansion of production scale in May was still relatively fast compared with the same period, indicating that industrial production was still strong this month; However, the backlog of orders fell sharply below 50, and the upward range of the reverse indicator finished product inventory index reached a new high, indicating that the strong expansion of industrial production has leveled off since then. However, the downward range of the purchase volume index, import index and raw material inventory index are significantly lower than the average value of the same period over the years, indicating that the overall expectations of enterprises for the future are still optimistic

small and medium-sized enterprises are not cheap

loans from local financing platforms and real estate

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI